Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
